It is never easy to predict the future, as any politician or stock broker will tell you, and when, domestically at least, the years events will be sculpted by an election outcome it becomes even more difficult.
By June a new government will have been formed but what colour they fly is still up in the air. May 6th is currently being touted as the fateful day by the Conservatives, who would no doubt benefit form it coming sooner rather than later. The longer it drags on, expect Gordon Brown and Labour to start making inroads into the poll deficit, and do not rule out the possibility of a hung parliament.
For the first time the leaders of the main parties will take part in televised debates. Liberal Democrat top-dog Nick Clegg has the most to gain and will carefully position himself in case of a tight race. Prime Minister in waiting, David Cameron, will be confident after regularly upstaging Brown at Prime Ministers Questions. How to reduce the deficit, MP’s expenses, the NHS and Afghanistan are going to be at the top of the agenda during what will be the longest general election campaign the UK has ever seen. MP’s expenses will likely be top story early on with current members having to declare their intensions to run again in the very near future which will certainly lead to some embarrassing headlines for some.
Of cause whoever does not get elected is likely to create as many headlines. If Labour lose, Brown will have no choice but to resign, if the Conservatives lose it could mean the end, for now at least, for Cameron and if the Lib Dem’s underperform Clegg may come under pressure.
With Brown the more likely to go who would take over? David Milliband (Foreign Secretary) was put forward as an alternative when Tony Blair stood down, Alan Johnston (Home Secretary) and Ed Balls (Schools Secretary) would be popular in some circles.
But what about Mandelson? The Prince of Darkness has been instrumental since his return, but a leadership run from the Lords is awkward to say the least and finding him a safe Labour seat as an MP creates its own problems.
So what for the new government?
Brown is to host an Afghanistan conference in London in January with the hope of formulating an exit strategy. However much like Copenhagen 2009 the public will take a lot of convincing it is more than posturing.
President Obama has already made it known he want to see the first stages of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2011. This means serious progress must be made this year. Many high profile experts and military personnel have said the situation may get worse before it gets better and with over 100 British deaths last year the question is how much worse. A lot of this may boil down to President Hamid Karzai’s job performance in the coming months.
Iran clearly is also going to be a major issue this year. President Ahmadinejad is already under pressure while opposition leader Mir Hossein Musavi has already said he would be willing to die for the reform movement. With the death of the Grand Ayatollah this may be the window the reform movement needs.
Iraq too is to hold elections this year, most likely in March if security allows with the hope it can confine an unpopular chapter to the history books. North Korea will also be on the agenda with continued rumours of Kim Jong Ill’s health and of cause their feared nuclear capabilities.
In May the 189 signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty congregate in New York to review the plan with some predicting the collapse of the deal leading to the possibility of the nations mentioned above developing Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Security is certainly going to be a watch word for this year, as it has for many years now.
With Brown in full conference mode following the G20, Copenhagen and the upcoming Afghanistan talks he also wants to add another to discuss terrorism in the Yemen following the alleged failed bomb plot on Christmas Day.
A major question for many is can the western world go another year without a successful attack on our shores?
President Obama’s self imposed deadline for closing Guantanamo Bay will not be met, by his own admission.
The plans are still active with the possibility of a maximum security prison in Illinois being the next host of allegedly the most dangerous terrorists on the planet. Globally the economic situation will dominate for another twelve months. The eyes of the world will focus on Dubai as the western world keeps its fingers crossed the blip seen there in November and December will no become a long term trend.
There are of cause several issues at home we need to attack.
Feelings are split over what will happen to unemployment figures this year while the election result will determine exactly how the deficit is to be addressed. Unemployment is currently at 2.5million with many claiming it could top 2.8million before it starts to get better. The £820billion deficit will be a more difficult problem to tackle especially when you consider it must be done while jeopardising the recovery both in terms of growth and unemployment.
When and how we go about this is another one of these issues which will only be known after the election.
Will the renewed British economy be based on finance as in the naughties or will a new industry brake forth and dominate the teenies?
Will French President Sarkozy’s railing against the ‘freewheeling Anglo Saxon model’ have its desired effect?
Will the New EU President Herman Van Rompuy bare any teeth at all? The problem with a new industry dominating is manufacturing in this country was devastated in the 1980s and will struggle to return while financial industries are unpopular and will be heavily regulated in the coming years.
A banking presence in London is inevitable but with a greater chance of international banks heading to Europe dumping us freewheeling Anglo Saxons. Although even as the New Year begins the London Stock Exchange is being boosted by improved performance in the manufacturing sector.
As for Mr Van Rompuy, it is unlikely the force of his particular role will be known until a few EU Presidents down the line.
There are other troubling international problems.
The results of Copenhagen will become more apparent this year and its critics and supporters will have something to either laugh or cry about sooner rather than later.
Environmental issues are a major part of all politicians’ manifestos and some action will no doubt be taken but whether it can have any serious effect is debatable and in even bigger doubt is the $100bn promised to help developing nations. The environmental lobby must get past the ‘climategate’ affair if their beliefs are to hold any legitimacy and its supporters need to learn the violence which dogged Copenhagen and London needs to stop if progress is to be made.
In the UK, after two years with major flooding, can we expect the same or will our particular brand of climate change now bring a major drought? Although it was only a few years ago meteorologists were talking of a monsoon style season in this country.
But as we all know there is only going to be one story any of us truly care about this year and it is taking place in South Africa this summer. Football fever will hit our shores once again with wall-to-wall international games on the television prompting complaints from those who care little for the beautiful game.
Once again Andy Murray will raise our hopes of a British champion at Wimbledon while our athletes head to India in November for the Commonwealth Games. There will be no doubt which team British F1 fans will be cheering for this year with the McLaren world champion dream team of Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton set to battle the returning Michael Schumacher.
Whatever happens, 2010 will be a huge year both in the UK and across the world with many major issues coming to the fore.
Can progress be made in Afghanistan, will David Cameron be the next resident of number 10 and can Fabio Capello lead us to victory?
Only time will tell.
Colin Rowe
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Whether it be technology or model train-building, niche interests have always carried jargon with them, which enthuses the hobbyists and frankly scares the outsiders. Horse-racing is one of the few mainstream spectacles which continues to baffle and intrigue those not engrossed in its entertaining world. My grandmother would religiously watch The Morning Line, and so by proxy I couldn’t help but pick up various bits of racing psycho babble. Since then I’ve always viewed the betting shop as a dystopian limbo, a sort of holding pen for anyone who’s had too much to drink and too little cash.
That said, horse racing and betting are big business. Over $100 million a year is waged on bets in over 53 countries. You’d think with animal rights movements gaining momentum that horse racing would have cantered to a halt by now. Indeed, it does have it’s critics, amongst several high profile animal rights groups, but horse racing refuses to die, because it has a small and loyal following who will always turn out to the races, lay bets, and then discuss it at work afterwards.
What follows here is a review of 2009 in horse racing:
2009 started, and indeed ended all about Kauto Star. Denman had been diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat whether he would make Cheltenham. His absence was noted at all the big post Christmas and new years meetings (where Kauto Star put in an impressive win in the King George, and winning once again yesterday), and was well beaten in February over hurdles. At Cheltenham Kauto Star put faith to the hype, and Denman finished a long way second to his next door neighbour. Ruby Walsh, second only to AP McCoy described him as the greatest horse he had ever ridden. Denman’s next big appearance was at Aintree on Grand National week, where he fell after travelling well. There was heartbreak, and there were many fears that this was the end.
However on November the 28th at Newbury he took the Hennessy Gold Cup in fine style, beating another stable mate; What a Friend, in doing so became the only horse since Arkle to win two. For many this showed the promise of great things to come, and another year of battles between Paul Nicholls’ two best.On February the 9th, Restless D’Artaix jumped flawlessly round Plumpton, taking AP McCoy to the massive landmark of 3000 winners, made even more remarkable by the fact that just over a year previous the Ulsterman had broken his back following a horrific fall from Arnold Lane.
Although arguably Roby Walsh is many times more stylish a jockey, there is good reason why AP is dubbed the finest jump jockey to date. Since riding his first winner over hurdles; Legal Steps in 1992, aged 17 he has been unbeatable, taking the title every year since the 1994/5 season. He royally thumped the record for numbers of winners in a season in 2001/2002, which had been held for 55 years previously, by a flat racing jockey (without wishing to bore people with mathematics, it’s a lot easier to rack up winners on the flat than it is over jumps). Realistically all he has left to do is 300 winners in a season and the Grand National, which has eluded him so many times.
Whatever happens he will go down as one of the greats, and should his records ever be broken I would imagine it would be by someone not yet born.
In a year of heroics and unlikely champions (such as Mon Mome – the 100/1 chance taking the National) there were a few very sad losses. The ones I feel I have to note are Pressgang, Commercial Flyer and Russian Trigger. However the saddest loss of all was that of Exotic Dancer, a truly lovely horse who I have followed for many years. It was a horse on the way to the top, only outclassed by Kauto Star. The only departure that has been sadder so far in the 21st Century has been that of Gloria Victis, as we would never see how good Gloria Victis was; there was a huge amount of speculation as to how it would become one of the greats. Exotic Dancer showed he had class and his death overshadowed the remainder of the season.
Emma Louise-Kerwin
Introduction by Joseph Stashko-Adamaszek
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Golf is what you would call a gentleman’s pursuit. The players have never really reached the levels of celebrity of premiership footballers and you would not expect to see pictures of them falling out of nightclubs. Their clean-cut image has allowed them to maintain a certain persona unlike any other in professional sport.
This was true until the early hours of November 27.
When the news broke of Tiger Woods’ car crash nobody could have expected the repercussions of it not only for him, but for his sport as well. Tiger’s image has been especially important to him since becoming the youngest ever winner of The Master in 1997.
This carefully crafted appearance combined with talent, resulted in him becoming the best paid man in sport with major sponsorship deals from Nike and Gillette. A man who on the face of it really did have everything, including a Swedish model for a wife.
Now after these revelations about his private life he may end up with nothing. Gillette have already said they are scaling back his involvement with the brand and his hiatus from golf may dent his chances of reaching Jack Nicklaus’s record of 18 major victories which the 33-year-old trails by just four.
Tiger’s status does belong to one of those who outgrew his sport. Like Ali or the Williams’ sisters Tiger had unintentionally become a statesman for the coloured community. However is it the tackiness of his departure that is likely to be the lasting legacy?He’s tried in the last two weeks to shield himself and his family from the looming catastrophe. In the days following the crash he pleaded for personal space with his family and even his “confession” was candid apologising for his ‘personal sins’ in a statement not lacking in poetic flair.
An injunction in the UK has also tried to halt his character erosion in Europe, although many have pointed out we are perfectly capable of logging-on to CNN who are not covered by the injunction.
Golfers have been especially quick to jump to the sporting defence of a modern legend. Peter Allis, Steve Stricker and rising star Anthony Kim all praised him as an ambassador of the sport and even more realise how damaging a permanent departure could be both in terms of the sport and financially.
But is it possible for this disgraced legend to tee-off again?
Premiership footballers Ashley Cole and David Beckham have made successful returns after similar disgraces, but the golfing fraternity are likely to be less forgiving. Footballers can have affairs with cocktail waitresses without really raising an eyebrow. In golf clubhouses across the world it is more likely to be rumour mongering behind the persons back.
You cannot deny his effect on a sport seen by many as stuffy and old fashioned and it would be impossible to calculate how many young people have taken up the sport because of Tiger’s influence. His caddy, Steve Williams, has said ‘everyone makes mistakes’, a sentiment many onlookers sympathise with and has been used by many over the years, including President Bill Clinton, to explain away infidelities.
The major change is likely to be the face of the sport. Tiger has not appeared in public since the accident demonstrating he is capable of living away from the limelight. But a return to golf cannot be shrouded in secrecy and a quick high profile return cannot be conducive to saving his marriage or his reputation.
Colin Rowe
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Tiger Woods has announced on his website that he’s taking “an indefinite break from professional golf”
After a tumultuous fortnight, the golfer, widely regarded as one of the best of all time, makes the announcement after earlier securing an injunction on the UK press.
To read the statement in full, click here
]]>It’s been about three days since Ireland dropped out of the World Cup, and quite frankly I will hurt the next person who whines about it. It’s plastered the press, been a hot topic of discussion; mainly amongst people who can’t place Galway on a map and think “slainte” is a Russian cocktail, and just generally been everywhere.
Before tackle this properly, let me explain something: I’m Irish by nationality, I love Ireland, I think the British owe the Irish an apology, I ride horses, I can hold my drink and so on and so forth. Anyone with a pair of eyes (or just one half functioning one) could have seen that Henry handled the ball, but Ireland did the same in the same game, it was just bad luck it was not picked up by the referee. The amount of interest on Twitter and and Facebook has been truly ridiculous, behold the following creation, made only a few moments after the game:
It was not as bad as the hand of God incident, and I think it’s hugely doubtful (as the Sun were claiming) that the whole thing has been a scheme organized by Adidas, it was just unlucky, end. Fifa have said no replay, thus there shall be no replay, unless France offer a replay, which would do them no harm (Ireland aren’t great at football anyway), but they won’t, so final point, no sodding replay. Not to mention the logistics of organizing an international match with a few days notice.
The biggest irritation of the entire scandal has been the involvement of politicians, especially on the Irish side. I didn’t expect anything else of Sarkozy, but Irish politicians should just leave matters alone. The day following the match, Dermot Ahern, the justice minister was demanding a rematch. Frankly, there are many other things the Irish government could be concerning themselves with, for a start, they are currently the only country making Britain’s economy look alright, and anyone who’s tried to apply for university with CAO will probably quite happily go to great lengths to see the system reformed. It is also a country that’s population said NO to Lisbon, only to be told that this was the wrong answer, and that they would have another referendum so they said yes. What Henry did was not right, but not only is it not a political issue; it’s slightly ridiculous of the Irish government to preach ‘fairness.’
Yes, I would love the French to offer a rematch, even though I can tell you they would win, simply on the grounds of integrity and decency, but I doubt they will, not least because of the implications of organizing an international match with less than a few days notice, and if FIFA have refused the pleas, would they count it in the first place?
If the Irish can come out the better side in the Irish war of independence, survive a famine and create a ridiculously strong national identity and pride for such a small nation from which so many people emigrate I’m sure they can get through a handball against France. We’ll hold our heads up high, as always, and go and numb the pain with some bushmills whiskey, and come the big rugby matches, no doubt we’ll be dismissing football as a sport for puny girly men. Our national anthem is called “Amhran na bhFiann” which basically means the soldier’s song, and I think it’s time we start living up to this, not behaving like the whiney kid in the playground because some fat kid gave him a shove.
Emma-Louise Kerwin
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