The year ahead in world affairs: 2010
It is never easy to predict the future, as any politician or stock broker will tell you, and when, domestically at least, the years events will be sculpted by an election outcome it becomes even more difficult.
By June a new government will have been formed but what colour they fly is still up in the air. May 6th is currently being touted as the fateful day by the Conservatives, who would no doubt benefit form it coming sooner rather than later. The longer it drags on, expect Gordon Brown and Labour to start making inroads into the poll deficit, and do not rule out the possibility of a hung parliament.
For the first time the leaders of the main parties will take part in televised debates. Liberal Democrat top-dog Nick Clegg has the most to gain and will carefully position himself in case of a tight race. Prime Minister in waiting, David Cameron, will be confident after regularly upstaging Brown at Prime Ministers Questions. How to reduce the deficit, MP’s expenses, the NHS and Afghanistan are going to be at the top of the agenda during what will be the longest general election campaign the UK has ever seen. MP’s expenses will likely be top story early on with current members having to declare their intensions to run again in the very near future which will certainly lead to some embarrassing headlines for some.
Of cause whoever does not get elected is likely to create as many headlines. If Labour lose, Brown will have no choice but to resign, if the Conservatives lose it could mean the end, for now at least, for Cameron and if the Lib Dem’s underperform Clegg may come under pressure.
With Brown the more likely to go who would take over? David Milliband (Foreign Secretary) was put forward as an alternative when Tony Blair stood down, Alan Johnston (Home Secretary) and Ed Balls (Schools Secretary) would be popular in some circles.
But what about Mandelson? The Prince of Darkness has been instrumental since his return, but a leadership run from the Lords is awkward to say the least and finding him a safe Labour seat as an MP creates its own problems.
So what for the new government?
Brown is to host an Afghanistan conference in London in January with the hope of formulating an exit strategy. However much like Copenhagen 2009 the public will take a lot of convincing it is more than posturing.
President Obama has already made it known he want to see the first stages of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2011. This means serious progress must be made this year. Many high profile experts and military personnel have said the situation may get worse before it gets better and with over 100 British deaths last year the question is how much worse. A lot of this may boil down to President Hamid Karzai’s job performance in the coming months.
Iran clearly is also going to be a major issue this year. President Ahmadinejad is already under pressure while opposition leader Mir Hossein Musavi has already said he would be willing to die for the reform movement. With the death of the Grand Ayatollah this may be the window the reform movement needs.
Iraq too is to hold elections this year, most likely in March if security allows with the hope it can confine an unpopular chapter to the history books. North Korea will also be on the agenda with continued rumours of Kim Jong Ill’s health and of cause their feared nuclear capabilities.
In May the 189 signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty congregate in New York to review the plan with some predicting the collapse of the deal leading to the possibility of the nations mentioned above developing Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Security is certainly going to be a watch word for this year, as it has for many years now.
With Brown in full conference mode following the G20, Copenhagen and the upcoming Afghanistan talks he also wants to add another to discuss terrorism in the Yemen following the alleged failed bomb plot on Christmas Day.
A major question for many is can the western world go another year without a successful attack on our shores?
President Obama’s self imposed deadline for closing Guantanamo Bay will not be met, by his own admission.
The plans are still active with the possibility of a maximum security prison in Illinois being the next host of allegedly the most dangerous terrorists on the planet. Globally the economic situation will dominate for another twelve months. The eyes of the world will focus on Dubai as the western world keeps its fingers crossed the blip seen there in November and December will no become a long term trend.
There are of cause several issues at home we need to attack.
Feelings are split over what will happen to unemployment figures this year while the election result will determine exactly how the deficit is to be addressed. Unemployment is currently at 2.5million with many claiming it could top 2.8million before it starts to get better. The £820billion deficit will be a more difficult problem to tackle especially when you consider it must be done while jeopardising the recovery both in terms of growth and unemployment.
When and how we go about this is another one of these issues which will only be known after the election.
Will the renewed British economy be based on finance as in the naughties or will a new industry brake forth and dominate the teenies?
Will French President Sarkozy’s railing against the ‘freewheeling Anglo Saxon model’ have its desired effect?
Will the New EU President Herman Van Rompuy bare any teeth at all? The problem with a new industry dominating is manufacturing in this country was devastated in the 1980s and will struggle to return while financial industries are unpopular and will be heavily regulated in the coming years.
A banking presence in London is inevitable but with a greater chance of international banks heading to Europe dumping us freewheeling Anglo Saxons. Although even as the New Year begins the London Stock Exchange is being boosted by improved performance in the manufacturing sector.
As for Mr Van Rompuy, it is unlikely the force of his particular role will be known until a few EU Presidents down the line.
There are other troubling international problems.
The results of Copenhagen will become more apparent this year and its critics and supporters will have something to either laugh or cry about sooner rather than later.
Environmental issues are a major part of all politicians’ manifestos and some action will no doubt be taken but whether it can have any serious effect is debatable and in even bigger doubt is the $100bn promised to help developing nations. The environmental lobby must get past the ‘climategate’ affair if their beliefs are to hold any legitimacy and its supporters need to learn the violence which dogged Copenhagen and London needs to stop if progress is to be made.
In the UK, after two years with major flooding, can we expect the same or will our particular brand of climate change now bring a major drought? Although it was only a few years ago meteorologists were talking of a monsoon style season in this country.
But as we all know there is only going to be one story any of us truly care about this year and it is taking place in South Africa this summer. Football fever will hit our shores once again with wall-to-wall international games on the television prompting complaints from those who care little for the beautiful game.
Once again Andy Murray will raise our hopes of a British champion at Wimbledon while our athletes head to India in November for the Commonwealth Games. There will be no doubt which team British F1 fans will be cheering for this year with the McLaren world champion dream team of Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton set to battle the returning Michael Schumacher.
Whatever happens, 2010 will be a huge year both in the UK and across the world with many major issues coming to the fore.
Can progress be made in Afghanistan, will David Cameron be the next resident of number 10 and can Fabio Capello lead us to victory?
Only time will tell.
Colin Rowe
